For the distribution described in Exercise 1, find the probability of exactly 2 arrivals in one thousandth of a minute.
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- 1. Intro to Stats and Collecting Data55m
- 2. Describing Data with Tables and Graphs1h 55m
- 3. Describing Data Numerically1h 45m
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- 5. Binomial Distribution & Discrete Random Variables2h 33m
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5. Binomial Distribution & Discrete Random Variables
Binomial Distribution
Problem 6b
Textbook Question
In Exercises 5–8, assume that the Poisson distribution applies; assume that the mean number of Atlantic hurricanes in the United States is 5.5 per year, as in Example 1; and proceed to find the indicated probability.
Hurricanes
b. In a 118-year period, how many years are expected to have no hurricanes?

1
Step 1: Understand the problem. The Poisson distribution is used to model the number of events (hurricanes) occurring in a fixed interval of time (years). The mean number of hurricanes per year is given as λ = 5.5. We are tasked with finding the expected number of years with no hurricanes over a 118-year period.
Step 2: Recall the formula for the Poisson probability mass function (PMF): P(X = k) = (λ^k * e^(-λ)) / k!, where X is the number of events, λ is the mean number of events, k is the specific number of events (in this case, k = 0 for no hurricanes), and e is the base of the natural logarithm.
Step 3: Calculate the probability of having no hurricanes in a single year using the Poisson PMF. Substitute λ = 5.5 and k = 0 into the formula: P(X = 0) = (5.5^0 * e^(-5.5)) / 0!. Simplify the expression, noting that 0! = 1 and 5.5^0 = 1.
Step 4: Once the probability of no hurricanes in a single year is determined, multiply this probability by the total number of years (118) to find the expected number of years with no hurricanes. Use the formula: Expected years = P(X = 0) * 118.
Step 5: Interpret the result. The final value represents the expected number of years out of 118 that will have no hurricanes, based on the given mean of 5.5 hurricanes per year.

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Key Concepts
Here are the essential concepts you must grasp in order to answer the question correctly.
Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution is a probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, given a known average rate of occurrence. It is particularly useful for modeling rare events, such as natural disasters, where the events are independent of each other.
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Intro to Frequency Distributions
Expected Value
The expected value is a key concept in probability that represents the average outcome of a random variable over a large number of trials. In the context of the Poisson distribution, the expected number of occurrences can be calculated by multiplying the average rate (mean) by the number of intervals considered.
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Expected Value (Mean) of Random Variables
Probability of No Events
In a Poisson distribution, the probability of observing zero events in a given interval can be calculated using the formula P(X=0) = e^(-λ), where λ is the mean number of events. This concept is crucial for determining how many years in a specified period are expected to have no hurricanes, based on the average rate.
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