4. Probability

Corporate Officers and Committees The Self Driving Unicycle Company was recently successfully funded via Kickstarter and must now appoint a president, chief executive officer (CEO), chief operating officer (COO), and chief financial officer (CFO), and chief human resources officer (CHR). It must also appoint a strategic planning committee with five different members. There are 15 qualified candidates, and officers can also serve on the committee.

a. How many different ways can the five officers be appointed?

Corporate Officers and Committees The Self Driving Unicycle Company was recently successfully funded via Kickstarter and must now appoint a president, chief executive officer (CEO), chief operating officer (COO), and chief financial officer (CFO), and chief human resources officer (CHR). It must also appoint a strategic planning committee with five different members. There are 15 qualified candidates, and officers can also serve on the committee.

b. How many different ways can a committee of five be appointed?

ATM You want to obtain cash by using an ATM, but it’s dark and you can’t see your card when you insert it. The card must be inserted with the front side up and the printing configured so that the beginning of your name enters first.

a. What is the probability of selecting a random position and inserting the card with the result that the card is inserted correctly?

ATM You want to obtain cash by using an ATM, but it’s dark and you can’t see your card when you insert it. The card must be inserted with the front side up and the printing configured so that the beginning of your name enters first.

c. How many random selections are required to be absolutely sure that the card works because it is inserted correctly?

Is the Researcher Cheating? You become suspicious when a genetics researcher “randomly” selects numerous groups of 20 newborn babies and seems to consistently get 10 girls and 10 boys. The researcher claims that it is common to get 10 girls and 10 boys in such cases.

a. If 20 newborn babies are randomly selected, how many different gender sequences are possible?

Identity Theft with Credit Cards Credit card numbers typically have 16 digits, but not all of them are random.

a. What is the probability of randomly generating 16 digits and getting your MasterCard number?

Phase I of a Clinical Trial A clinical test on humans of a new drug is normally done in three phases. Phase I is conducted with a relatively small number of healthy volunteers. For example, a phase I test of bexarotene involved only 14 subjects. Assume that we want to treat 14 healthy humans with this new drug and we have 16 suitable volunteers available.

a. If the subjects are selected and treated one at a time in sequence, how many different sequential arrangements are possible if 14 people are selected from the 16 that are available?

ZIP Code If you randomly select five digits, each between 0 and 9, with repetition allowed, what is the probability you will get the author’s ZIP code?

Computer Variable Names A common computer programming rule was that names of variables must be between one and eight characters long. The first character can be any of the 26 letters, while successive characters can be any of the 26 letters or any of the 10 digits. For example, allowable variable names include A, BBB, and M3477K. How many different variable names are possible? (Ignore the difference between uppercase and lowercase letters.)

Phase I of a Clinical Trial A clinical test on humans of a new drug is normally done in three phases. Phase I is conducted with a relatively small number of healthy volunteers. For example, a phase I test of bexarotene involved only 14 subjects. Assume that we want to treat 14 healthy humans with this new drug and we have 16 suitable volunteers available.

c. If 14 subjects are randomly selected and treated at the same time, what is the probability of selecting the 14 youngest subjects?

Mega Millions As of this writing, the Mega Millions lottery is run in 44 states. Winning the jackpot requires that you select the correct five different numbers from 1 to 70 and, in a separate drawing, you must also select the correct single number from 1 to 25.

a. Find the probability of winning the jackpot.

Mega Millions As of this writing, the Mega Millions lottery is run in 44 states. Winning the jackpot requires that you select the correct five different numbers from 1 to 70 and, in a separate drawing, you must also select the correct single number from 1 to 25.

c. How does the probability compare to the probability for the old Mega Millions game which involved the selection of five different numbers between 1 and 75 and a separate single number between 1 and 15?

Mendel’s Peas Mendel conducted some of his famous experiments with peas that were either smooth yellow plants or wrinkly green plants. If four peas are randomly selected from a batch consisting of four smooth yellow plants and four wrinkly green plants, find the probability that the four selected peas are of the same type.

Design Your Own Lottery You have been given the task of creating a new lottery. For each $1 ticket, the player will select 6 different numbers from 1 to 25 (without replacement), and the only prize will be the jackpot won by players who select the six numbers (in any order) that are later drawn.

a. What is the probability of winning with one ticket?

Pick 10 Lottery For the New York Pick 10 lottery, the player first selects 10 numbers from 1 to 80. Then there is an official drawing of 20 numbers from 1 to 80. The prize of $500,000 is won if the 10 numbers selected by the player are all included in the 20 numbers that are drawn. Find the probability of winning that prize.